The economy in the Windsor area is projected to 'come to a stall' in 2026, according to an economist with Signal49 Research.
The group, formerly known as the Conference Board of Canada, has released its outlook for Windsor's economy for the remainder of 2026 and into next year.
Signal49 Research Economist David Ristovski says looking into this year, U.S. tariffs remain the key talking point and because of that they expect an overall slowdown in economic activity resulting in growth of 0.6 per cent for this year bringing the region's economy essentially to a stall.
The report highlights that despite slowing toward the end of 2025, Windsor's economy grew 2.3 per cent for the year, performing better than expected, and the city's manufacturing sector performed relatively well and seemed to have weathered most of the storm brought on by U.S. tariffs.
Manufacturing output rose 2.3 per cent, while employment in the sector rose a staggering 16.4 per cent in 2025, with roughly around 7,200 net new jobs added last year, driven largely by jobs added with the opening of the NextStar Energy battery manufacturing plant.
Ristovski says they do expect the trade tensions with the United States to ease toward the end of this year, and there should be a rebound in economic activity to start 2027.
"There are some downside risks overall that are impacting the short-term outlook for Windsor. For starters, manufacturing makes up 25 per cent, roughly 25 per cent of Windsor's economy, so any prolongation or escalation in the trade situation with the United States will have a negative impact," he says.
Ristovski says they do expect a positive growth story for Windsor's construction sector over the next few years despite construction coming to an end on major projects like the NextStar plant and the Gordie Howe Bridge.
"The sector will get a rather large boost from ongoing construction projects such as the interchange at Banwell Road and E.C. Row and a large commercial development by Rock Developments in east Windsor as well as the Lauzon Plaza, just to name a few," he says.
Ristovski says housing starts will moderate this year, with builders expected to break ground on 1,190 units, but the region's housing market is projected to pick up a little more steam starting in 2027.
"There are several residential developments that are supporting our housing starts and overall construction forecast. For example, Windsor's Development and Heritage Standing Committee has approved an application for an $80 million, 27-storey mixed-use development in the downtown core, which is making up around 188 rental units," he says.
The report also notes that another factor that will likely hurt the city's economy over the short term is the downgrade in the trajectory of population growth, with the region's population expected to decline by 0.6 per cent this year-equivalent to around 3,000 residents-and by another 0.4 per cent in 2027.
The decline is expected to put downward pressure on several of Windsor's industries, especially those dependent on students, given that a large part of the population slowdown will come from a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents.