The latest projections show new infection rates are down in Ontario, but hospitalizations continue to rise due to COVID-19.
On Thursday, the province announced the rate of new infections has dropped from around three per cent to around 1.1 per cent.
If the current rate is maintained the province says infections will remain closer to the 1,478 new cases announced Thursday.
Officials say that is good news overall, but some areas in the Greater Toronto Area continue to see a rate closer to the worst-case scenario of five per cent.
Under the worst case scenario there would be close to 9,000 cases each day by mid December. The province says it only takes a few outbreaks in heavily populated areas to reach that number province-wide.
Hospitalizations are up 63 per cent over the last month and ICU's have now passed the threshold of 150 beds, according to the province.
Even if new infections level off, the province says those numbers will surpass 200 ICU beds and hospitalization will continue to climb as the virus progresses in those already infected.
Officials say hospitals are already feeling the strain, but as those ICU cases rise, it will begin to effect elective surgeries and other non-emergency treatments.
The province also says deaths in long-term care homes are rising, even though the number of cases among staff and residents appears to be flattening.