OTTAWA — Prime Minister Mark Carney has executed a clean sweep of all three of Monday night’s federal byelections, snatching away a Quebec riding from Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and holding onto two Liberal strongholds in Ontario and British Columbia to solidify his majority government.
The major victory of the night came for the Liberals in Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que., seeing the Liberals pick up a seat from an embattled Poilievre. The party also handily held onto Beaches–East York, Ont., and North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C.
Heading into Monday night, the governing Liberals held 170 seats, after a series of resignations in recent months. The trio of wins has moved the party back up to 173, one seat more than required to keep their majority foothold in the House of Commons.
With a majority government, the Liberals could hold onto power until 2029 without the risk of being toppled by the opposition, because the numbers are on their side during votes of confidence in the House. Reaffirming this power comes at a critical time, with MPs returning to the House of Commons for the fall sitting on Sept. 21.
These byelections took place amid an increasingly acrimonious trade war with the United States, and as results started trickling in Monday evening, CTV News’ political panellists all emphasized how much the events of the last few weeks on the Canada-U.S. trade file — and specifically the actions and comments of U.S. President Donald Trump — drove the vote.
“Trump is shaking the table, I think, in every part of this country, in politics from sea to sea, including Quebec,” said Kory Teneycke, a former director of communications for prime minister Stephen Harper.
From the softwood lumber sector in British Columbia, to the agriculture and manufacturing sectors in Quebec, the effects of tariffs are being directly felt. The downtown Toronto riding, meanwhile, sits along Lake Ontario, which in the U.S. is now known as Lake America, a reference to which the victorious candidate there made clear reference in his victory speech Monday night.
“I think it’s a huge factor,” said Scott Reid, a former communications director to prime minister Paul Martin.
Though, tonight’s results won’t be the last test for the parties, as the prime minister still has six other byelections to call in the coming months to fill current and upcoming vacancies.
Here’s everything you need to know about the results in these three ridings.
Liberals pick up Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que.
Voters in the closely watched Chicoutimi–Le Fjord, Que., have flipped the riding from Conservative to Liberal, securing a stronger-than-expected result for the federal government.
After the close margin of victory in last year’s general election, the riding was considered the one to watch in Monday’s byelections.
Liberal Daniel Gobeil, a local farmer and past chair of the Quebec Dairy Producers association, has now won the riding with close to 50 per cent of the vote, at the time CTV News called the riding.
Also expected to be in close contention to pick up the riding, the Bloc Quebecois candidate Caroline Dubé is sitting in a comfortable second with around 33 per cent of the vote.
Conservative candidate Régis Gaudreault has claimed around 13 per cent of the vote with 80 per cent of polls reporting, pushing the Conservatives from first place in last year’s general election to a distant third-place spot following today’s byelection.
Monday’s vote was to replace the seat vacated by Conservative Richard Martel, who’s held it since a 2018 by-election, and was appointed by Carney to the Senate early last month.
In an interview with CTV News last month, former Conservative cabinet minister James Moore said while the race was anyone’s game, it could be “enormously problematic” for the Conservatives if the seat flips to the Liberals.
“If the Liberals leapfrog from third to first, and the Conservative slide from first to third, that’s going to be a real problem,” Moore said. “Certainly for (Conservative Leader) Pierre Poilievre, you have to explain.”
Speaking during CTV News’ special election coverage Monday night, Reid said the election results were “a beating” at the expense of both the Bloc and the Conservatives.
“They’re going to have to start from scratch as a matter of electoral strategy,” Reid said, referencing the Conservatives. “What they’re doing ain’t working. What Pierre Poilievre has going, he ain’t playing, it sure ain’t playing in Quebec. It requires a big rethink.”
Teneycke also categorized Monday night’s result as a “beatdown,” chalking it up to low polling numbers for Poilievre and “a leadership that’s under siege” from MPs leaving his caucus.
Teneycke also pointed to Trump and the increasingly tense trade war with the United States as “incredible tailwinds” for Carney and the Liberals.
Beaches–East York, Ont. stays Liberal
In Beaches–East York, Ont., the Liberals have held onto a riding largely considered a stronghold for the party.
At the time CTV News called the riding, Liberal Tanveer Shahnawaz was well ahead with about 55 per cent of the vote.
Running against Shahnawaz were NDP Shannon Devine, a union and labour advocate, who was sitting at around 26 per cent of the vote, and Conservative Jim Syrbos, a local coffee shop owner, who had 16 per cent of the vote.
Shahnawaz previously served as the constituency office manager for now-former Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith, who held the seat from 2015, until he resigned early last month after a failed run at the Ontario Liberal leadership.
“It is going to now be the honour of a lifetime to represent the only home I’ve ever known as your next member of Parliament,” Shahnawaz said in his victory speech Monday night.
“I am not here, my team is not here, without the hundreds and hundreds of volunteers and members of my now-caucus colleagues and their teams from across the GTA and the province,” he also said, adding that based on the thousands of conversations his campaign has had with voters over the last few weeks, he’ll be prioritizing building community and supporting the prime minister’s nation-building efforts.
“It’s a great time to be a Liberal in Canada,” Shahnawaz said.
Aside from the four-year period from 2011–2015 when it was held by the NDP, Liberals have represented the riding since 1997.
PMO staffer claims North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C.
In North Vancouver–Capilano, B.C., voters also re-elected a Liberal, as expected. The riding has been held by the Liberals since 2015.
Liberal Braeden Caley won the race with more than 57 per cent of the vote with 44 per cent of polls reporting.
Running against Caley were Conservative Stephen Curran, a lawyer who also ran in the riding during last year’s general election, who was sitting in second with around 27 per cent of the vote at the time CTV News called the riding. The Green candidate was sitting in third with 10 per cent, and NDP candidate Stephen Tweedale, a community activist and organizer, had garnered just four per cent of the vote.
While he’s a relative unknown in the riding, Caley is a familiar face on Parliament Hill, having previously worked as a deputy chief of staff to Carney.
The riding has largely voted with the government for decades, held by Conservatives when former prime minister Stephen Harper was in office, and flipping to the Liberals when former prime minister Justin Trudeau formed government.
Candidates ran to replace longtime Jonathan Wilkinson, who resigned after he was appointed ambassador to the European Union in the spring.