The Windsor-Essex County Health Unit is looking to make enhancements to the way they test beach water in the region.
The Health Unit has been monitoring the eight beaches in the region for a number of years to test for high bacteria levels, such as E. coli, that could be harmful to swimmers.
While beach water samples are tested weekly, it can take up to two days to receive the water quality results back, however it would only reflect the condition of the water from the time of the sample.
Since the water quality can change quickly, WECHU will also now use a Predictive Beach Model tool. This tool will use current weather conditions, environmental factors such as rainfall, temperature, and past beach data to predict future water quality results.
The model will use historical beach water sampling data from 2014 to 2023 and will be presented to all municipalities with opportunities to participate at any of the eight beaches currently being tested.
The model will use all available information to predict what the bacteria levels could be for that day.
Kristy McBeth, Senior Director of Public Health Programs at WECHU, says they have years of data around this program.
"And combine that with things like weather, temperature, and then current water testing conditions like turbidity as an example, wave height, all these different kinds of data elements that we have access to, combining those. And we know we can get a really strong predictive model so that on a day-to-day basis we can give swimmers and beach-goers really a 'we expect today as likely safe for swimming, or that it's likely not'."
She says this will give beach-goers a better understanding of the water daily.
"We do feel the data is strong enough that it's going to give a very strong prediction based on all these factors put together, and analyze, so it gives us a little bit more. So it's in combination to that weekly testing which is still going to really validate on a week-to-week basis whether beaches are open or closed, but we're going to be able to give the public a bit more information on an ongoing basis."
McBeth says conversations are ongoing with the local municipalities.
"We're really hopeful that we're going to be able to have this across Windsor-Essex to make it available, regardless, that weekly testing will still happen. So, even if that predictive model isn't necessarily available on a day-to-day basis for every beach, the weekly testing will continue to be there. So that base doesn't change."
This new model will be implemented during the 2025 beach monitoring season, and is expected to launch this May.
While the daily predictions will be posted, the Health Unit will continue to do the routine weekly sampling and testing.
In 2024, there was an increase in the number of warnings and closures issued for the local beaches with 27 water quality warnings issued and nine beach closures, above the 20 warnings and 3 closures issued in 2023.
The local beaches tested include Sandpoint Beach, Lakeshore Lakeview Park West Beach, Point Pelee North West Beach, Seacliff Park Beach, Cedar Island Beach, Cedar Beach, Colchester Beach and Holiday Beach.