CTV News is your Alberta Referendum headquarters. Live results. Expert analysis. Everything you need to know is here.
OTTAWA — Albertans have chosen. The majority of those who cast their ballots in the province’s historic referendum voted in support of staying in Canada rather than pursuing separation.
“It’s a great result for Canada,” Prime Minister Mark Carney said on his way into a cabinet meeting on Parliament Hill Tuesday morning. “(I am) thrilled that Albertans have chosen unity.”
In a closely watched and highly consequential election – and with results still coming in – around 75 per cent of voters said Alberta should remain part of the country, while about 25 per cent supported pursuing a binding referendum on whether the province should separate from the rest of Canada.
As of 1 p.m. MT (3 p.m. ET) a total of 85 per cent of polls have reported, according to Elections Alberta.
A reminder, the ballot question Albertans were weighing when it came to the provinces’ place in the country was: “Should Alberta remain a province of Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?”
And voters had two options for their answer:
- “Alberta should remain a province of Canada”; or
- “The Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada.”
According to the preliminary figures, more than 1.4 million votes of the more than 1.9 million votes cast, were in favour of the first option, a decisive indication of how Albertans feel after having several months to hear the pitches from pro-federalist and separatist groups.
Federal leaders react
In his initial social media reaction to the early results, Carney said: “Above all, Albertans chose Canada.”
“They chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other,” he said, indicating the way forward will be together, “with renewed purpose and high ambition.”
“Canada is so much greater than the sum of its parts. Now it is our opportunity to take all that we have been given as Canadians – and we have been given the greatest country in the world – and make our country better for all of us,” he said.
His mid-morning comments to reporters echoed this message. The prime minister also thanked Albertans for turning out in such high numbers and the volunteers who helped conduct the vote.
Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said that coming out of this vote, the country must focus on delivering the promise of a stronger Alberta.
“The promise of Canada is worth fighting for,” he said in a statement. “Now our focus must be on results in people’s lives: affordable food and homes, safe streets, strong borders, and less immigration.”
Speaking about the results further Tuesday at a press conference in Calgary, Poilievre said he supported Albertans’ decisions.
“Now we need to focus on the future. How do we bring everyone in? How do we make everyone feel fully part of the Canadian family?” he said. “I believe that the unifying principle of this country is the promise that anybody who works hard gets a great life.”
Responding to the results on Parliament Hill Tuesday morning, federal NDP Leader Avi Lewis called the entire process “unnecessary.”
“I think the thumping result on the ‘Stay’ side is a clear message that Albertans in massive numbers want to be part of Canada. I think that is extremely healthy, it gives us a rare breath of hope in these difficult times,” he said.
“But at the cost of $130 million, giving the separatist movement in Alberta (a) venue, a campaign, an opportunity to build its strength… opening the door to foreign interference… none of that was necessary, all of that is negative and we all live with those consequences,” Lewis said.
What happens now?
Now that Albertans have voted to remain a province, this particular process has ended.
But that doesn’t mean the issue or the sentiments within the province that got us here cease to exist. This so-called “no vote” doesn’t eliminate the possibility that a future government could revisit the question of separation.
Those on this side of the vote have already spoken out, indicating as much.
Keith Wilson, the co-chair for the group Let Alberta Decide, has said that no matter the outcome, it won’t be the end of the separatism discussion.
“Regardless of what happens tonight, it’s going to keep going forward,” he said. “I think we’re having the important discussions, and hopefully in time it will become less polarizing.”
Jeffrey Rath, legal counsel for the separatist Alberta Prosperity Project, said he thinks a “political movement” has been created.
“We’re not going to stop until Alberta becomes a free and independent country and becomes the wealthiest country in the world,” he said.
Under the province’s citizen-initiated referendum laws, a future petition process could spark a similar democratic exercise.
Until then, efforts to improve federal-provincial relations will likely be the focus for both governments.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith said she’s “very pleased to see the initial results from Elections Alberta show widespread support for remaining in Canada.”
“Thank you to all Albertans who took time to vote on these critically important referendum questions,” she said in a statement. Smith also said she’ll deliver a live address to Albertans to discuss where the province goes from here, at 6:45 p.m. MT Tuesday night.
Carney and Smith spoke Tuesday morning, according to the prime minister, who said the two “had a good conversation on a series of issues.”
“We take into account and look where we can find solutions together,” Carney said.
What are the implications?
Politically speaking, the most immediate consequence could be felt by premier Smith.
Speaking on CTV News Channel, advocates on both sides of the debate cast doubt on the premier’s continued leadership.
“She can’t govern without us. I mean, 70 per cent of [United Conservative Party] members in the rural constituencies voted for independence,” said pro-separatist Rath.
Smith faces a leadership review next month. And those on the federalist side agree that she will have some tough decisions ahead.
“She created chaos for herself, and now she has to choose whether Canadian unity is more important to her than the UCP party unity,” said Thomas Lukaszuk, the former Alberta MLA behind the ‘Forever Canadian’ campaign.
From a business perspective, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce said the “resounding level of confidence in our province’s future within Canada,” provides a much-needed certainty for companies to move forward with investments and focus their energy on new economic opportunities.
“Alberta’s economic success has been built on more than a century of trade relationships, shared infrastructure and strong connections with partners across Canada,” said Chamber CEO Deborah Yedlin.
“At a time of growing global competition and trade uncertainty, Albertans have delivered a clear mandate: we want to be at the table, helping shape Canada’s prosperity and ensuring our province’s contributions and potential are fully recognized.”
From an Indigenous rights perspective, Siksika Nation Chief Samuel Crowfoot said the results reinforce the importance and strength of treaties and the role they play in Canada.
“I would like (talk of separation) to be put to bed, put to rest once and for all, but I know this is a movement that is over 100 years old and there’s a lot of people who are still dead set on that,” Crowfoot said. “It’s frustrating.”
How did we get here?
The Alberta government announced in February that a referendum would take place.
According to the provincial government, the series of events that sparked this referendum date all the way back to the election of the Justin Trudeau Liberal government in 2015.
Though, after a decade of what the Alberta government has characterized as “destructive anti-Alberta policies,” since Carney took office, it’s seeing a light at the end of the tunnel.
Ahead of the vote – citing the progress on energy policies and the promise of a new pipeline – Smith’s government was advocating for Albertans to vote to remain in Canada “and focus our efforts on building a stronger and more sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.”
Those campaigning to pursue separation, though, were less assured that the last 18 months were an adequate indication of how the province will be treated on a go-forward basis by future federal governments.
Speaking a week ahead of the vote, CTV News pollster Nik Nanos said after the separatist Parti Quebecois in Quebec received 28 per cent popular support in that recent provincial election, the question for the federal government coming out of the Alberta vote would be whether the pro-separatist vote in Alberta is higher or lower.
He said, in his view, this would dictate where the federal government spends its energy when it comes to trying to quell separatist sentiment.
“Regardless of what the number is, there will be stress on the federation,” Nanos said.
That stress could come through the fallout from the much closer results on the other questions on Monday’s referendum ballot.
The issue of separation was certainly the most consequential question, but it was just one of 10 questions put to voters. The premier, in making her push against setting a formal separation vote in motion, characterized the nine other questions on the referendum ballot as a potential political compromise.
That’s because the other issues Albertans had their say on could also have knock-on effects for the entire country. Those questions centred around immigration reforms, judicial appointments, Senate abolition, and loosening the federal-provincial linkages on laws and social services.
While the votes on those questions are being counted right now, Elections Alberta has said official results will not be announced until Wednesday. Stay on top of what we know so far about how Albertans voted on those questions, here.